Briefly speaking, the dietary supplement industry, the development of the dragon enterprise

(Risk Tips: This is only shared by academic exchanges and fundamental materials, non-recommended trading, trading needs to evaluate valuation and timing, please pay attention to risk)


As a company listed in the GEM in 2010, $ Tomshajian (SZ300146) $ ‘s performance has been very good. However, in early 2014, the acquisition failed as a node, the stock price began to adjust, and the adjustment time was adjusted for nearly one year. The decline in growth is the concern factor of Mr. Market, as shown below:


From the growth rate, Tomson’s valuation of the Tomson’s estimated central adjustment is difficult to avoid. While growing, in life, we also pay attention to the online or pharmacies present more and more overseas competitive brands, which triggered investors’ concerns about competition.

For investors who dig excavate, they will pay special attention to the cycle transformation of the market side weight and advantage. In fact, Tomson’s share price is long enough, and the fourth quarter of the fourth quarter of 2014 declined low, which is a rare low configuration, and given that the industry is still in the Chaoyang period, maybe it is time to be again with readers. Go to explore the fundamentals of the industry and the company.

This article is based on the market introduction of Tomshajian’s possible neglect, divided into three aspects of the industry impact, industry growth potential and Tomshenjian expectation (once again). Main, non-recommended sale);


First, the changes in the regulatory system have the impact on the industry;

The regulatory system is listed separately as a payment point, which is due to the profoundness of the supervision system to the industry growth rate and the intensity of competition in the industry.


1. Differences in the Sino-US dietary supplement regulatory system:

Dietary supplements, also known as nutrient supplements, is a helper means for diet, used to supplement the amino acids, trace elements, vitamins, minerals of the human body. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) specifies that the dietary supplement is a food, not a drug. Therefore, the US Food and Drug Administration does not guarantee the safety and effectiveness of dietary supplements, and the US Food and Drug Administration can only take action when the dietary supplement is proved to be unsafe. In China, nutrient supplements claimed by health function must obtain registration processes of the National Food and Drug Administration in accordance with the “Health Food Registration Management Measures”. This also led to the “blue hat” dietary supplement sold in pharmacies to make consumers safe. Due to the different legal norms, foreign dietary supplements are available for 3 months. If they are listed on health products, they need to be approved by the National Food and Drug Administration, and companies need to invest the stability and safety testing of products. And the approval process takes 2-3 years. The difference in the China-US regulatory system, forming the manufacturer, time and capital investment threshold, from this point, to form a brand and funds, Tomson’s health is advantageous, and this relative competitive advantage can be maintained or enhanced Will further affect the distribution of future market share, follow-up. In the short term, the possibility of comprehensive release is small, and the national conditions determine that food safety is still a major problem in China.

2. Influence of the US dietary supplement regulatory environment on the growth rate of industry growth

The US dietary nutrition supplement started around the 1930s, when product sales were strictly regulated, dietary supplements were limited to vitamins, minerals and proteins; some manufacturers found in the 1970s promoted the development of dietary nutrition supplements. In the 1970s, the health products company flocked, VSI, NBTY, and Kangbaolai and other companies were established in this period, and by more than 800 dietary supplements manufacturers in the 1980s. From the growth rate of the United States in the market, since 1970, it has gone through high-speed starting, rapid growth, outbreak growth, steady growth, as shown in the figure below:

(1) For the natural growth stage, 1970-1995, mainly depends on the popularization of nutrition and health care and the rapid development of the economic level, the growth rate of the dietary supplement industry is approximately GDP. In 2014, the growth rate of China’s dietary supplement industry was about 12%, and GDP was about 7.4%, the ratio was low, and the material will gradually rebounded to about 15%; it is also twice that of the industry is about GDP, so when we When the company is given to the dietary supplement, the growth rate prediction assumptions in the second phase should be in the two digits, and thereby determining the rational valuation of such companies will not be low.

(2) From 1996 to 2001, it benefited from the growth stage of the regulatory system. In 1994, the United States issued the “Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act”, adding more substances in the dietary nutrition supplement catalog, and incorporating it into food, simply listing the FDA, this measures promotes the industry The burst growth, the compound growth rate of 1996-2001 was as high as 25%.

(3) The industry has entered the maturity period after the 21st century, and the composite growth rate is 6%, but still higher than the compound growth rate of GDP4%.

From the above three-stage history, China’s dietary supplement industry is more like the US Phase 1980s, at least twenty-year rapid growth period.

3. The impact of changes in regulatory systems on enterprise growth:

In 1996, -2001, the regulatory authorities defined dietary supplements as food, meaning substantially reduced the threshold, driving a rapid growth of the industry, also introduced a lot of competitors. We have found that the share of the leader in the United States did not increase significantly; such as GNC’s share of 13% in 1996, fell to 8% in 2001; NBTY’s share increased from 3% in 1996 to 4% in 2001 NBTY is mainly due to the acquisition of Holland & Barrett, the UK’s largest dietary supplement company, and other company acquisitions maintained an increase in the growth rate of the industry. The relaxation of the regulatory system makes more competitors into the income, while doing a big cake, letting the leading enterprises are hard to fully seize the incremental market with their original brands. On the other hand, GNC and NBTY’s development route have also brought the differentiation of growth in the rapid development stage of the industry. GNC is based on the store, and the merger items are less. Since the store is dominated by the store, in addition to the threat of channel competition, for example, early 1980s, the GNC’s income and profit occurred in a large number of chain and pharmacies. NBTY is based on non-store retail channels, similar to Tomson’s health. NBTY wholesale business rises from 20% in 1999 to 61%, from the number of acquisitions to the acquisition, the standards of M & A covers the entire industrial chain, including manufacturers, branders, dealers, channels, etc. We believe that NBTY’s development strategy helps to build a larger incremental market through the industry chain in the industry’s outbreak period and multi-brand operations, as shown in the figure:

Second, industry growth potential

If there is a strong growth prospect of a industry, a lot of listed companies in the global will have a lot of listed companies in a mature market, and the market value of the leading enterprises is relatively large; finally if the industry is good, the leader can show continuously growing and growing. The market share is high, we observe whether the dietary supplement industry has the above characteristics.

1) The global dietary supplement listed company or a large number of companies have been merged, but the market value is generally unparalleled:


The listed companies in the United States include: GNC, Nuskin (such as new), HLF (Kangbao Lai), Vitamin Shoppe, USANA, Mannatech, etc., the market value is generally around 10-4 billion US dollars; there is also a NBTY, Schiff, which has been privatated or acquired. Martek et al; 300 million people in Australia have cultivated some listed companies, such as BKL (Blackmores), with a market value of about 500 million Australia; British Holland & Barrett, the estimated value of 3 billion pounds.

From the number of listed companies and the number of mergers, the capacity of the industry is capable of cultivating a plate, but a single company market value is small. In 2013, the US dietary supplement has a market capacity of approximately $ 32.5 billion, and the global market capacity is 96 billion US dollars, which belongs to the neutral capacity.

2) The growth and scale of the leading enterprises:

Leaders have the characteristics of fast, continuous, stable growth, as shown below:

(Note: NBTY, GNC is the dietary supplement company in the largest non-staple field in the United States; Blackmores is the largest company in the Australian industry)

NBTY and GNC have been established for ten years, and the income still maintains approximately 8% growth, and it is good, and investors can see more and far from companies in their industries.

However, as 1), although the listed company is a lot, the market value is small, the development of a decades of enterprises, the market value is only around $ 304 billion, where is the problem?

First of all, the industry has not yet, until the current scale is only nearly 50 years, the industry capacity is only around $ 32.5 billion, and the market scale is still in a stable growth period, which is not like dairy, clothing, home appliances, oil, finance, etc. With an inherent huge stock market, the market capacity of the industry is not expected to affect the market value of the company. It is worth noting that the size of the dietary supplement industry is still 7.5% year-on-year. The market capacity of the 1990s was around 8 billion US dollars, and the relaxation of the supervision system in 1996 was further stimulated. Second, the industry competition is saturated, and the share of the leading businesses and low profitability is also the main reason why the market value is not large. For example, the Coca-Cola with the soft drink industry and profitability (Coca-Cola is 48%, 18.3%; NBTY is 10%, 7.56%), then NBTY market value is at least 9 times, which is 36 billion US dollars. The problem is that the market share of the leader can continue to increase? Can the profitability enhanced?

3) The market share and profitability of the leading enterprises can achieve:

Shape: Only 8% -10% of the United States, NBTY and GNC account for 8% -10% of the market capacity, and the concentration of the industry is related to the time point of the industry relative competitive pattern. Most companies have been grounded in the 1970s, in 1970-1990, basically relatively competitive and similar fully competitive environments. As the industry capacity becomes large, the outgoing enterprises began listed in the late 1980s, and the capital market funds is an important time to relatively competitive transformation, that is, the relative competitiveness of the transformation is final in the late 1980s. However, the brand pattern will precipitate a relatively stable faucet pattern after the competition in two or three years, which affects the speed of subsequent improvement in industry concentrations to a certain extent. Kang Baolai listed in 1986, NBTY listed in 1989, GNC is listed in 1992 (later retreat, and re-public in 2011), and in the late 1980s or in the early 1990s, the company’s financing platform further aggravated, after financing, It is indeed a rapid growth, such as NBTY’s marketing increased by 524 times, and the market share increased from 2% to 10%. GNC expanded 1.3 times in the six-year retail store in 1992, and the listing is an important relative competitive transformation. Time point.

In addition, the leader of the leader is related to the characteristics of the dietary supplement industry. For example, the product is homogeneous, but at the same time, there is also a consumer to the brand differentiated appeal, these two factors of the role of the manufacturer are global Or domestic expansion is hindered, and there are often localized brands. If compared with carbonated beverages, Coca-Cola market value reached 180 billion market value, the global carbonated beverage market approximately $ 97.5 billion, it accounted for 48% of the share, the operating income reached 46.85 billion US dollars, Coca-Cola sales were easily accepted in any country. It has uniqueness to some extent. The overall dietary supplement is homogeneous, but there is also a variety of consumption of various brands. After the market is integrated, there will be several big brands to share the market, and see the Japanese chemical industry. In fact, from NBTY’s development M & A history, multi-brand strategy is easier to enhance the share.

The relative competitiveness and the industry’s attributes determine the market share in a region. The British, Nbty’s brand (including Holland & Barrett, GNC (UK)), with a total of approximately 50% of the United Kingdom (2006 British market capacity of 1.55 billion US dollars in the UK), this at the same time Thanks to the competition in the European market without the US market, NBTY acquired Holland & Barrett in the 1990s and gives strong financial support.

Profitability: GNC, VSI in 2013 is about 10%, 6%, NBTY’s profit margin before returning to the market in 2010, and Tomson’s profit margin is as high as 28.4%, and the reason for the difference is domestic The matching of the dietary supplement is guided by the “China Dietary Guide”, the unit content is lower than foreign products; the second is the difference in employee costs, this part is not less than 8%; the third is the positioning of Tomshajji. The fourth is that domestic dietary supplements have access to the market, which leads to enterprises with scale advantages to enjoy cost advantages. We believe that the level of domestic leading enterprises reached more than 15% of the profit margin can be understood.

In general, the relative advantages of capital strength, management level and branding have relatively competitiveness, channel development strategy, etc. also affect development speed, the US current leading market is determined by its historical development. When the industry attributes determines that companies in the industry are suitable for multi-brand operations to do bigger, then the concentration of the industry will be more flexible. From the time of the relative competitive changes of domestic dietary supplements, Tomson ‘s only in the dietary supplement industry is only the only listed company, the financial strength is strong, and it has been out of the Chinese market. It has obvious financial advantages and brands. Advantages, if the increase is successful, multi-brand strategy may enter a benign development phase. Another company’s growth is not the growth rate of the industry, but it is more dependent on whether the gap between the competitors, Tomson’s management capabilities are recognized from the reputation of peers or non-peers. The author believes that Tomshen The share and profit will be far from the current situation of the US leading enterprise, and if the traditional Chinese supplement market can be developed, the expandable capacity is higher than the US market.

Third, Tomson Bianjian is worth looking forward to the project

First, from the variety, Tomson Jianjian is only about 200, GNC up to 2000-3000 varieties. GNC is basically not investigated every year, the R & D cost rate is about 0.03%, while Tomshajian’s research and development investment accounts for 3.98% of the income, and Tomshajian has many varieties. For example, in 2013, it is estimated that more than 60 million yuan is estimated in 2014, which will be doubled this year, and will account for about 8% of total revenue. Therefore, the author believes that many investors’ attention focuses on the number of ceilings developed in the pharmacy, while the value of the large variety extension may be ignored.

Calcium is the largest dietary supplement in domestic consumption, and Tomson’s health has made a large type of single product, and it is very successful. The largest dietary supplement in the US consumption is a variety of vitamins, which is related to eating habits of the two countries. The second is the second in the United States, the annual growth rate is maintained at around 13%, and the herbs have maintained a good growth in recent years. Sports nutrition projects have grown rapidly in China, such as Kangbit, sold in Taobao, sold more than 20,000 barrels of protein powder per month. GNC has missed sports nutrient market in the 1980s, lost market leadership, the current domestic sports nutrition market is like the United States in the 1980s, Tomson Bianjian is expected to have in sports nutrition items this year.

Another big project herbal dietary supplement, current Tomson’s health is in gestation a new sub-brand – unlimited, the product is mainly surrounded by Chinese characteristics, this market has Chinese characteristics, no breeding, Stock market, industry capacity. Unlimited can be sold on Taobao, but large-scale promotion or investment in TV advertisements may be in the year, there is currently no major area promotion because there is still less in hand. In summary, if considering the two types of major projects in the end of the year and next year, Tomson’s revenue has increased to more than 30% in the next few years. Most brokerage researchers have lowered the performance of Tomshajji’s future, leaving space for the company’s future ultra-expected growth (short-term timing is suitable, seeing people’s wisdom, not evaluating).

Finally, we look back at Gree Electric, Yili, etc. will find a few more performance optimal stocks that they will find that the long-term growth rate of their share price is composed of these core elements: the growth of market capacity, the company share, profitability Improved and valuable discount rates, based on the top three factors described above: from 2004-20, industry sales increased by about 2.8 times, the market share increased by 2.95 times, the profitability is 2.97 times, total 23 times grow, while the market value is 24.5 times grew, the value is similar. The most wonderful factors that drive high quality white horses super-expected growth lies in the ability to continue to open and competitively gaps, and the market share under profit quality is continuously improved. Pull the length of the distance and quickly affect the extent of the performance and the extent of the expectations. Tomson’s management team has such a gene.

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